“We see CIGS being very competitive in the 2013-2014 timeframe,” said Schmidtke. “There are other CIGS players on the market that will probably be ramping up more quickly than Solyndra.”

Among CIGS producers she pointed out were Solibro (a Q-Cells company) and Solar Frontier. She also said that California-based Stion has seen a lot of positive venture capital behind it and may make some big production advances soon, thanks to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s (TSMC) recent decision to purchase 21 percent strategic ownership stake in the company.

“That’s one to consider,” she said. “[TSMC] are globally known for moving quickly.”

But Solyndra is a different story.

“Solyndra is definitely an interesting case, where you had a lot of money going in and a lot of interest in the company,” said Schmidtke. “They really have some issues with their cost, their efficiency and their ability to drive down the two together.”

She said it will take a change in Solyndra’s cost-structure to make the company more competitive.

But, for its part, Solyndra is looking forward.

The company built its second facility with the DOE loan guarantee and completed it ahead of schedule, according to Miller.

Solyndra is now bringing equipment over from Fab 1 to Fab 2 to meet its current production needs.

“We knew we were going to achieve economies of scale,” he said. “The original facility was built over time. Our new facility allows us to move the products through and scale up production more quickly.”

The hope is that the company can not only stay afloat, but thrive with the new facility.

“We’ve been able to meet all our production needs, and next year, we’ll be doubling capacity, and it should increase dramatically after that,” Miller said. “What we’re aiming for in 2013 is an installed on-the-roof cost of $2 watt. At that point, we think we’ll be at good retail parity.”

Pictured: Thin-film PV is projected to come into its own in 2013-2014. Photo: Meehan.