Lux report: Concentrated solar power may see significant growth
Feb 03, 2011
`That’s according to a new report from Lux Research, Inc., which released “The Market for Concentrated Solar Power is Hot and Getting Hotter” on Feb 1. The report found that after a long hibernation, large-scale concentrated solar systems will really start taking off in the U.S. and throughout the world this year.
The report said, “It is clear, heading into 2011, that despite declining PV [i.e., photovoltaic] prices and a multitude of environmental and financing concerns, solar thermal technologies are here to stay and that the generation stack of the future will increasingly incorporate concentrating solar power (CSP) plants in excess of 100 MW.”
It’s been a long time coming.
“For the first time in 20 years, concentrated solar power is coming back in the U.S. In 2011, we’re starting to see the first [new developments],” said report author and Lux Senior Analyst Ted Sullivan.
The report looked at the three major forms of concentrated solar power: solar towers, solar troughs and heliostat (solar dish) systems with Stirling engines.
In the executive summary, the report said the goal of each technology is to produce electricity at the “lowest possible levelized cost of electricity (LCOE).” Lowering the LCOE of the technologies ensures an easier sale of generated electricity and allows them to compete better with natural gas projects, the report said.
It concluded that dish systems with Stirling engines had the lowest LCOE. That’s despite the troubles that large-scale Stirling projects have experienced in reaching the development stage. For instance, Tessera Solar’s bid to build a SunCatcher farm in Colorado’s San Luis Valley is still stuck in hearing stages, and the company abandoned its 850 MW Calico Solar Project in California.
“Most [new projects] are troughs. A few out there are power towers. The Stirling is certainly the minority,” said Sullivan.
He explained that the Stirling dish technology is not proven as thoroughly as is trough technology. So far, there have only been small-scale installations of Stirling power stations.
“Mainly just a few heliostats he said.” Meanwhile, the world’s largest solar power plant in operation is the 350 megawatt SEGS plant in California, which has been operating for more than 20 years.
And solar power towers were tested in the U.S. and have experienced their own renaissance in Spain in recent years.
Stirling engines offer least expensive solar, but they need a champion
Despite proven demonstrations of trough and power tower technology, Sullivan said Stirling technologies are the cheapest solar technologies available.
“If you look at the metrics of Stirling, they’re at about $3.00 a watt capital costs [i.e., without subsidies]. Compared to the others at $4.00 a watt,” he said.
The report found that the inexpensive nature of Stirling engines makes them the least expensive, in terms of LCOE. Stirling technology also gets a leg up on its concentrated solar competitors because it is more modular than trough systems and power towers.
Sullivan said that Stirling dish systems, for instance, can contour to the land, while power towers and parabolic trough systems are less flexible and need level land to operate at the greatest efficiencies.
Before Stirling dish technologies gain more traction, it needs more proven demonstrations, Sullivan said.
“The financing environment generally hasn’t been good [for Stirling]. You don’t have the strength of sponsors; that needs to happen,” he said. “If Stirling technology is going to be successful, then someone needs to champion the technology and prove it on the small scale.”
Your Comments
Seems like a "chicken & the egg" or Catch 22 issue. Ok, here's the egg: The 1.5 MWatt SES installaion at SRP's Agua Fria Power Plant in Peoria AZ. SES and SRP should publish engineering performance data on the 60 SunCatchers used there on their respective websites to help validate this technoliogy.
Don't the Sterling systems also use much less water? This is an important issue in the parts of the country with the most sun
Stirling is better than PV because it's twice as efficient, however, both PV and the dish suffers from no affordable storage (yet). Obviously, the tower blows away the trough in both efficiency and of storage. Thus ALL efforts should be put into determining how to develop the best e-storage for dish/PV/wind AND bringing down the capital costs and enviro (ill)legit costs for thousands of concentrated solar power towers!
I am interested in development of small scale CSP and I feel if we can make viable technology it has got bright future in India and undeveloped countries. I want to discuss in detail.
Solar is powerful and as technologies continue to focus and develop which solar makes the most sense may be a debate for homeowners and businesses but not if solar makes sense.
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