The future of solar investing: all eyes on China

While the U.S. solar industry, like much of the world’s, seems to be on a healthy pace to make impressive gains in 2011, investors have their eyes on China.

Still the fastest growing, in terms of output, Chinese solar firms have put up monster numbers in the past. But as governments all over the world begin to scale back in light of a push to spend less, subsidizing certain industries may take a back seat to frugality.

And the worldwide solar industry, still in its adolescence if not its infancy, cannot maintain the consistent climb it has been demonstrating without those subsidy programs in place.

So, while the future is uncertain, now is either the best time or worst time to buy in, and thanks to a recent set of analyses from The Bedford Report, investors can make up their minds themselves.

Here are a few snippets from some of the research Bedford has done on four Chinese solar firms:

JA Solar (Nasdaq: JASO) is one of those monster-numbers companies.

The firm reported that third quarter earnings more than quadrupled to $77 million, or 47 cents per share.

JA Solar had, last year, predicted that its 2010 shipments would peak at about 1.35 gigawatts (GW), but the company actually reported shipping more than 1.45 GW by the year’s end. Sometimes it pays to be a little off.

According to Bedford, “The company says it would add capacity to meet rising global demand, which is being fueled by declining subsidies in Germany as governments pare back spending to support renewable energy systems.” In this case, the declining subsidies, while not good for the future of solar, may provide a temporary boon. Short-term investors could, potentially, get in while the demand is frantic, and run away when the subsidies dry up.

But JA Solar might be doing too well for the fly-by-night investor.

Bedford reported that “JA Solar has seen the largest increase in short positions among solar stocks. In fact, short interest on JA Solar as of mid December had reached its highest level in more than a year, with more than 24 million shares short.”

Trina Solar’s (NYSE: TSL) stock has seen better days. Since Bedford last profiled Trina, the price has declined more than 20 percent. Now, investors are wondering if this slide has reached the bottom floor. Is Trina ready to rebound, or should the company and its investors prepare for more bad news? However, potential buyers could take advantage of these low prices before Trina rebounds; it’s a gamble either way.

But maybe not.

According to Bedford, “Investors had fled from solar and TSL due in large part to concerns that earnings will decline in 2011. The company itself is significantly more bullish heading into 2011. The company’s CFO Terry Wang thinks US shipments will double next year while he predicts ‘gross profit to grow tremendously and net profit to grow even faster in 2011.’”

Of course, a company’s CFO isn’t likely to warn off investors, but it’s something to think about. The fact is, one thing going for Trina is that it’s a Chinese company.

According to Bedford, Chinese solar companies have boasted noteworthy third quarter earnings and have been the fastest growing firms in Europe and North America.

Shares of LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), another Chinese firm, took off after the announcement that the company’s third quarter earnings, per share, surged 167 percent from last year.

Bedford states that, “LDK Solar also said it expects its fourth-quarter revenue of between $710 million and $750 million, well ahead of consensus analyst estimates of $579.4 million.”

But analysts agree that China can’t maintain this growth forever. As subsidies begin to waver in Europe and the U.S., two of the fastest growing markets for solar installations, these booming firms may see revenue begin to plateau.

One company that is already showing signs of this is Suntech (NYSE: STP).

STP posted 18 cents earnings per share in the third quarter compared to 16 cents in the year-ago quarter.

Due to rising silicon wafer costs and weaker selling prices, Suntech is posting lower profits in the quarter.

But don’t count Suntech out just yet. The company’s total third quarter revenue of $743.7 million was an increase of 19 percent from $625.1 million in the second quarter. The company, like most Chinese solar firms, is still profitable.

Image courtesy of Suntech.