Study: solar PV in North America to double in 2011

A new report just out from IDC Energy Insights in Massachusetts claims the number of solar photovoltaic installations in North America is likely to double in 2011. The new study, titled Business Strategy: Trends to Watch as the Rate of North American Solar PCV Installations Doubles in 2011 was released last week and examines the technological, legislative, and business model trends that will shape the industry in the year ahead.

According to the IDC report, a total of 1 GW of solar PV installations are set to be online across North America by end of the year 2010, with over 2 GW of new installations in 2011.

"While subsidies undeniably underpin much of this growth, the young solar PV industry has been rapidly innovating in ways that make solar PV systems more cost effective, easier to install, and easier to maintain," said Jay Holman, research manager for IDC Energy Insights' Renewable Energy Strategies program. "While North American installations trail those in Europe, current momentum represents very strong growth for the region."

The number of PV installations doubling would be in line with the recent trend; the 441 megawatts added in 2009 was more than doubled in 2010. Holman noted that state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) programs, leasing and financing programs, subsidies, and falling costs will spur solar PV growth.

“I think the biggest single factor in the US right now is the presence of RPS programs with solar carve-outs,” said Holman. “They provide relatively stable, long-term incentives that drive industry growth. By comparison, federal incentives that last a year or two do help in the short term, but they also feed boom-bust cycles when they expire (or nearly expire), and they create a lot of uncertainty that acts as a drag on the industry that you wouldn't have with a federal RPS.”

“We expect costs to come down for PV modules, balance of system components, and the labor component of PV systems this year: the solar PV industry is still young and there is plenty of room for costs to come down,” he added. “Drivers of cost reductions will include module and inverter oversupply as well as innovations in the balance of systems that reduce installation labor requirements.”

Image courtesy of Heating Central.