Bonneville's retired vice president talks solar, part 4

Even as the wind turbines perched above the Columbia River Gorge and the hydroelectric dams on Oregon’s Columbia River produce power, solar is poised to gain market share in the state.

As solar continues to grow, and prices for photovoltaic technologies continue to fall, the path solar is taking looks a lot like the path that wind power has taken, according to Paul Norman, recently retired senior vice president of power services at Bonneville Power Administration.

“Wind took 20 years to really get off the ground, and I think solar’s probably the next wave,” said Norman. “It’s probably the thing that’s going to—10 years from now—look like wind does now. It’ll be a much bigger part of the resource base, but we have to sort through a dry patch with solar.”

Interest in renewables like wind and solar would surge when gas and oil prices were high. But interest would fall as soon as gas and oil prices fell, he said.

“Wind went through several of those cycles, and it’s really gotten to the point where I think it’s close to self-sustaining,” he said. “Wind is really getting to be a significant resource in this region. Finally, that’s after 20 years of effort. And I think unfortunately right now, we’re in one of those take a half step back kind of periods for several reasons.”

Wind also has an interesting relationship with the predecessor of modern renewables, hydroelectric.

“The gigantic dams right now are making it possible for the renewables to be developed. So if you removed dams, ironically, you’re making it less feasible to have other renewable, and you need something to back up the renewable,” said Norman. “If you don’t use hydro what are you going to use? Probably gas.”

So, according to Norman, the idea isn’t to replace one renewable source with another, but to lower prices across the board, but that is something consumers can’t do alone.

“I think the important thing for solar is to get, like with wind, a sort of demand pull on the folks working on the technologies to give them incentive to bring cost down. They figure that’s what really causes things to move and change and get better,” he said.

Image courtesy of NREL.