The states with the greatest push and incentives for new solar installations are not necessarily the same ones that would benefit most from a big solar energy boom, according to a new economics study from Arizona State University.

Matthew Croucher, an economics professor, created a new formula to measure the potential benefits of generating solar power for individual states.

He factored the amount of sun the state gets, the current cost of its electricity, its need for job growth, and its existing infrastructure for exporting energy.

He ranked the top 10 states that should launch solar generation projects and sell the power to other states and the top 11 states that would benefit most from making their own power using the sun (see the lists below).

The results were somewhat surprising. In both instances, the states with the biggest incentive programs and renewable energy portfolio goals—California, New Jersey and Florida—all ranked low or not at all.

Other states that have little or no push for solar energy growth—Arkansas, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and others—ranked high on Croucher’s lists.

“I started looking at this because states are talking a lot about their energy portfolios,” Croucher said. “I am an economist by training, so that’s where my interests lie.”

He said there are two directions to examine the solar potential from.

The first is a self-sustaining one, Croucher said. That’s when the state is focused inward, looking at how much power it can generate for itself.

Hawaii ranked number one on Croucher’s list of states that should produce their own solar energy.

“That makes sense when you look at it,” Croucher said. “It’s not connected to the other states. It can’t share power, and it has a very high cost of energy. It’s also the state closest to the equator.”

While that inward-looking perspective makes sense for Hawaii, it’s not how most states approach the prospect of incorporating renewable energy into their portfolios, Croucher said.

“But the states are all connected, “ he said, “and we want to be able to take advantage of that.”

He said the trickiest element in incorporating solar energy on a national scale would be finding the best ways to transmit the power from state to state. Transmission lines are built to handle power generated by fossil fuels, coal and nuclear power. He said states would have to start examining what they need to do in order to be able to transmit clean power from state to state.

“In order to get the best out of solar as a country, we’ve got to look at it should we build transmission lines,” Croucher said.

The Top 10 states that would benefit from solar deployment through generating and exporting energy to other states are:

1. Arizona
2. Colorado
3. Georgia
4. Texas
5. Hawaii
6. Arkansas
7. Wyoming
8. Alabama (tie)
8. Missouri (tie)
10. California

The Top 11 states that would benefit from solar deployment solely for purposes of self-sufficiency are:

1. Hawaii
2. New Mexico
3. Colorado
4. Missouri
5. Georgia
6. Texas
7. Arkansas
8. Alabama (tie)
8. Mississippi (tie)
10. Oklahoma (tie)
10. Wisconsin (tie)

Pictured: Vibrant Solar's solar array, installed at Cottonwood Links, a golf course in Fowler, Colo.